Market Report, November
It was just after Easter that I said I didn’t expect the low egg prices we were seeing to last that long. The lows did last all through the summer but finally, prices have started to rise. We saw our first round of increases in early October and are expecting more throughout November. The UK has finally worked through the glut of shell egg that it had amassed, forcing processors to buy at the higher current market price. Furthermore, the demand for egg was higher than we would normally expect for October and with November being peak month for egg demand we expect to see a potential shortfall in supply in the near future. As such, expect prices to keep increasing into December.
EU and UK prices on pork are at their highest since the end of 2017. High demand and a strong export market have seen a rise in slaughters, but this is not enough to curb the price increases that have been apparent in pork products in recent months. UK demand has been lower than expected but coming into the festive season we can expect the demand to increase. As such it seems unlikely that prices will fall on bacon, sausages and lard this side of 2020.
Almond shipments are up 16.2% which will rectify the shortfall in the market from last year’s crop. Across the globe all export markets are up on last year except for India. Sales are also up year on year with September being the highest month for sales on record. The increase in shipments and sales have firmed pricing however and it is expected they will remain as such, in part due to the fact that sales and commitments are showing no signs of slowing at current pricing.
Chocolate prices have been increasing since the start of August which has mostly been driven by rises in the cocoa market. Recent reports regarding the Ivory Coast crop of cocoa claim that earlier estimations were higher than actual crop. Along with the new Ivory Coast and Ghana Levy on cocoa beans which will take effect from this autumn’s crop and the potential Brexit tariffs and taxes of roughly 15% which has led to an increased demand in taking out contracts early these factors have almost certainly contributed to this increase in pricing. It is therefore doubtful that prices will return to the lows that we faced earlier in the year.
Stewart Humphrey, Purchasing Director
*Information correct as of 14/10/19