Market Report, October 2019
The 2019 Turkish Sultana crop is expected to be around 300,000 Tonnes, which is a 14% increase of 2018 crop. However, this has come in slightly under the estimate of 320-330,000 tones. As a result, packers have been reluctant to sell. Currency has been an issue for the last 12 months in Turkey, the lira has devalued against the dollar throughout, however with political relations improving so is currency, so hopefully when stock becomes available pricing will be more stable. In the short term, with high demand due to shortfall in 2018 crop, I would not expect prices to decrease.
2018 crop on walnuts has all but sold out. 2019 crop should be landing by the end of September, however 2019’s crop is only 60% of the normal crop size. With Diwali falling in late October demand from India will be high so this will mean Kashmir stock will be more expensive to export. As a result, prices are expected to increase.
We continue to see Rapeseed Oil prices increase in the global market. European rapeseed production is down 13% on last year, and the Australian crop is suffering due to the heat. As a result prices for Rapeseed Oil have risen almost consistently since April. The only downward pressure on price is from likely reduced demand due to other oil prices remaining steady and people who are able to switch doing so.
The ongoing US-China trade war has sent soyabean prices on a journey this past year. However, with good sales of US Soyabeans to china in recent week many expected prices to increase. This however was not the case in some part due to good weather outlooks in the US, but also a record crop is expected from Brazil and as such this is keeping prices lower than typically would be expected.
Stewart Humphrey, Purchasing Director
*Information correct as of 12/08/19